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Seasonal trends favor bulls even as bitcoin ends April in a defensive mood
Your day-ahead look for April 30, 2026
Apr 30, 2026, 11:15 a.m. 3 min read
What to know:
- Bitcoin is consolidating below recent highs, but historical seasonality, bullish ETF inflows and supportive equity markets point to a potential upside bias in May.
- Still, rising bond yields, especially the U.S. 30-year hitting 5%, and geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict and energy prices pose significant macro headwinds for bitcoin and other risk assets.
- A looming bullish crossover of bitcoin’s 50-day and 100-day moving averages signals strengthening momentum, though past instances show such patterns can fail in weaker market environments.
Coming on the heels of April’s roughly 10% gain, the seasonal pattern suggests the broader uptrend could remain intact. The outlook is supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already hovering near record highs.
Back-to-back net monthly inflows into the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate strong institutional demand and support the bullish case. These ETFs have pulled in over $1.8 billion this month following March’s $1.32 billion.
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.
Still, traders need to keep an eye on bond markets, where rising yields are posing a headwind to risk assets.
