Oil remains a key factor. Higher crude prices from the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could feed inflation, making central banks less willing to cut interest rates. That can weigh on crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more attractive.

The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this week, though the four dissenting voices are the most since 1992. Mercado Bitcoin said the decision and the absence of clear rate-cut signals led markets to reprice policy expectations.

“In the short term, the market should remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data,” the company’s head of research, Rony Szuster, said. “In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy.”

Jerome Powell’s chairmanship at the Fed ends on May 15, and Kevin Warsh is expected to chair the June FOMC meeting,which could induce volatility given Warsh’s favor for tightening monetary policy.

The key test remains at $80,000. A break could draw new buyers, while a failed move may trigger selling if leveraged longs unwind. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

TA for Mayt 1

The weekly plot of the bitcoin price is testing rejection at the $80,000 resistance zone, with RSI showing early signs of a bullish divergence — the price printed a lower low while the RSI held higher — though unconfirmed on a weekly close.

A failure to break above keeps the price range-bound between the 200-day exponential moving average of about $68,000 and that level.

Premarket data (CoinDesk)

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What to know:

  • Bitcoin is consolidating below recent highs, but historical seasonality, bullish ETF inflows and supportive equity markets point to a potential upside bias in May.
  • Still, rising bond yields, especially the U.S. 30-year hitting 5%, and geopolitical risks tied to the Iran conflict and energy prices pose significant macro headwinds for…

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