Prediction markets are ditching the ‘casino’ label to become a regular part of how people track the news
A new report from Bitget and Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are evolving into a $240 billion industry driven by retail users who are trading more frequently on everything from crypto to politics.
What to know:
- Prediction markets are shifting from occasional, event-driven bets to continuous platforms built around frequent, smaller trades by retail users.
- Polymarket’s monthly trading volume has surged from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, with active wallets more than tripling in six months.
- As crypto-focused users branch into markets tied to real-world events, prediction prices are increasingly used alongside traditional data to track expectations on economics, politics and culture.
The data suggest growth is being driven by frequency rather than trade size. More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter, a sign the market remains dominated by retail participants. Instead of placing large, infrequent bets, users are engaging in smaller trades more regularly.
“Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet’s chief operating officer. “What we’re seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.”
Crypto remains the primary entry point for new users, accounting for nearly 40% of early activity. Its continuous trading and familiar price movements make it a natural starting place. But as users become more active, participation shifts toward markets tied to real-world events.
