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But the picture is more complicated.
Alongside the payrolls release, markets will also be watching wage growth closely. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% previously. Sticky wage pressures, combined with already elevated oil prices, could strengthen inflation concerns globally and complicate the Fed’s path forward.
In other words, the market reaction may hinge less on headline job creation and more on whether wage growth cools. With traders already pricing in the possibility of future rate hikes next year, risk assets may need a softer-than-expected earnings figure to stage a meaningful rally.
For now, analysts remain broadly constructive on bitcoin, with the $75,000 level seen as critical support.
“Bitcoin has returned below $80K, extending its retreat from the 200-day moving average after briefly entering overbought territory near the upper boundary of its uptrend channel. The lower boundary of that channel sits near $77.5K, though a broader trend break would likely require a fall below recent lows around $75K,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro.
Beyond payrolls, traders are also keeping an eye on the upcoming minutes of the Fed’s April meeting, as well as developments in the Strait of Hormuz and global oil markets.
“Prediction markets assign a 97% probability to no Hormuz normalization by May 15. The gap between that pricing and the equity market’s willingness to fade every escalation is the week’s defining contradiction,” Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a market note. “If crude fails to de-escalate before the May 20 FOMC minutes, the stagflation narrative will become much harder to dismiss.”
Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
U.S. stocks rise as tech outlook offsets war worries: market wrap. (Bloomberg): A rally in technology stocks is lifting U.S. index futures as investors wait for the monthly jobs report. Oil fluctuated. Benchmarks in Europe and Asia fell. Brent moved to just above $100 a barrel. The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses.
The chart by coinglass tracks the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price difference between bitcoin traded on Coinbase, a proxy for U.S. institutional and spot demand, and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Green readings indicate BTC is trading at a premium on Coinbase, signaling stronger demand from U.S.-based investors.
The premium has flipped into a discount this week just as bitcoin looked to establish a foothold above $80,000. Interestingly, the rally has stalled.
Historically, bull runs have coincided with persistent positive readings in the index. The next move higher, therefore, warrants a return of the premium.
