Brent crude zoomed almost 1% to above $105 a barrel after President Donald Trump cast doubt on the ceasefire with Iran in remarks Monday, fueling concern that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will be prolonged. The Treasury 10-year yield rose to 4.42% and the dollar strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers on haven demand.

Equity markets across Asia pulled back from records. The Kospi slid as much as 5.1% intraday after a top South Korean policymaker proposed paying citizens a dividend funded by taxes on AI profits, with the comments fueling sharp swings as investors tried to parse the scope of the proposal.

MSCI’s Asia Pacific index swung between gains and losses. European futures pointed to a 0.6% loss at the open. U.S. futures edged lower after the S&P 500 closed at a record high Monday, capping a six-week winning streak that gained more than 16%, the strongest such run since the global financial crisis.

Bitcoin’s price-action will likely be tested later Tuesday as investors watch the U.S. inflation print, which will show how much of the war-driven price pressures has fed through to consumer prices and could shape the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

A hot number on top of fresh Iran tensions and Burry’s bear call would put real pressure on the AI-trade thesis underpinning the equity rally, while a soft print buys risk assets, including crypto, another week of room.

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BTC has recovered from Friday’s jobs-driven dip, but Enflux says overhead resistance remains intact while Glassnode’s market structure data suggests traders are buying the rally while still positioning for downside.

What to know:

  • Bitcoin is trading just above $80,000 with a stronger structural floor from ETF demand and low exchange reserves, but its rebound still looks more like a test of resistance than a decisive breakout.
  • Trading data from Glassnode show buyers growing more aggressive in both spot and futures markets, yet rising…

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