“That could be problematic,” said Noelle Acheson, author of Crypto is Macro Now, in her latest note. She added that while progress is positive, “there is still much that could go wrong tomorrow.”

She noted that to secure passage in the Senate, the committee will need bipartisan support. Without it, she warned, the chance of the bill passing this year, about 60% on Polymarket, could fall sharply.

Despite the high stakes, BTC implied, or expected, volatility metrics remain subdued, pointing to steadier market conditions.

“Volatility expectations [in BTC] are compressed at all forward horizons, with short-dated options trading close to their year-to-date lows (with implied volatility at a historical low of 30%),” said Andrew Melville and Thahbib Rahman of Block Scholes. “There’s also no obvious event risk priced-in by either BTC or altcoin options ahead of the Senate CLARITY Act markup.”

There are, however, signs of stress in markets tied to Coinbase (COIN). “[There] we do see an embedded implied vol premium in the May-15 contract which covers the debate date, suggesting traders are clearly pricing for the bill to act as a catalyst for companies that stand to benefit from regulatory clarity, but not for BTC,” they said. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

BTC's daily price chart in candlestick format. (TradingView)
BTC’s daily price chart with the 200-day average. (TradingView)

Bitcoin backed away from the confluence of the 200-day simple moving average and the upper boundary of the rising channel that has defined the recovery from February lows.

It’s not just a routine pullback from resistance.

The decline has now also pierced the short-term upward (dotted) trendline drawn from April’s lows, suggesting that the latest leg of the recovery has ended.

Taken together, these signals increase the risk of momentum-driven selling entering the market, potentially driving prices down to $75,000 or lower. On the higher side, the 200-day average placed just above $82,000 is the level to beat to revive the bullish outlook.

Premarket data (CoinDesk)

More For You

Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C. (Shutterstock)

Your day-ahead look for May 13, 2026

What to know:

  • Tokenized U.S. Treasuries hit a record $15.35 billion in value locked, as traders weighed the higher chances of a Federal Reserve rate increase and sought yield outside spot crypto.
  • Bitcoin is holding above $80,000 but faces difficulty breaking higher if inflation and real rates keep rising, with miner balance-sheet pressures…

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