Bitcoin’s recent $80,000 breakout was led by something other than U.S. spot buyers, data show
The rally was led by leveraged traders and not U.S.-based spot buyers. Hence, its. sustainability is being questioned.
What to know:
- Bitcoin’s recent rise from about $80,000 to $82,000 has occurred despite a persistently negative Coinbase Premium, signaling weaker U.S. institutional spot demand than offshore buying.
- CryptoQuant data show that apparent demand has narrowed sharply since April but is being driven mainly by perpetual futures rather than spot accumulation, a pattern historically associated with less durable rallies.
- Analysts say the move has the hallmarks of a relief bounce similar to March 2022, with $70,000 identified as key on-chain support where short-term traders’ average cost basis could limit further selling if prices retreat.
A positive premium typically signals U.S. institutional demand outpacing the rest of the world’s spot buying, since Coinbase is the primary on-ramp for American capital. A negative premium means the opposite: offshore traders are paying more for bitcoin than U.S. investors are willing to pay, driving prices higher.
That divergence has now held through a 5% rally. Bitcoin traded above $82,000 on Tuesday before slipping back below $80,000 after Wednesday’s hot producer price index print, with the cryptocurrency changing hands near $79,500 at the time of writing.
The price action played out entirely above the $80,000 level at which the Coinbase Premium turned negative. CoinDesk first flagged the negative flip in the premium on April 29 alongside a $5.97 billion spike in realized losses from underwater holders selling into the rally.
Other onchain metrics, such as CryptoQuant’s apparent demand, also point to lingering weakness in spot demand. The metric, which measures how much new bitcoin is absorbed by the market relative to mining issuance and changes in dormant supply, has narrowed to -11,000 BTC as of today, from -91,000 BTC in April.
