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Here’s why bitcoin turned lower from the 200-day average
BTC recently turned lower from the 200-day average, a barometer of long-term trends. CryptoQuant explains why.
May 21, 2026, 4:52 a.m. 2 min read
What to know:
- Bitcoin is trading near $77,900 after failing to break above its 200-day moving average around $82,400, a level analysts see as a key test between a bear-market bounce and a sustained recovery.
- CryptoQuant says demand drivers behind the recent rally—leveraged futures buying, spot demand and U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows—have all weakened, with its Bull Score Index dropping to an “extremely bearish” reading of 20.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks and key demand gauges in the U.S., Korea and Hong Kong are soft, leaving $70,000 as the next major on-chain support level if the correction deepens.
The bigger issue is demand.
CryptoQuant says the April and early May rally had been supported by three things: leveraged futures buying, spot demand, and U.S. ETF inflows. All three have now weakened. The firm’s Bull Score Index has fallen from 40 to 20, a level the firm calls “extremely bearish” and one that matched the February-March period when bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $66,000.
The clearest cross-check is the Coinbase bitcoin premium, which has remained negative through much of the May rally and the subsequent correction, CryptoQuant points out in the report.
