Crypto majors stuck in tight range as altcoin rotation picks up steam
Bitcoin holds between $76,000 and $78,000 while AI tokens and HYPE surge; derivatives signal calm conditions with volatility selling dominating options markets.
What to know:
- AI tokens NEAR (+28.5%) and FET (+11.4%) led Friday’s altcoin action as speculative flows rotated out of privacy coins DASH, ZEC and XMR, which shed much of their early-week gains.
- HYPE hit a record high after rallying ~60% since Tuesday, driven by heavy short liquidations and institutional demand following the launch of U.S. spot ETFs; altcoin season indicator climbed to 38/100.
- Bitcoin’s implied volatility continues to slide as options traders sell calls, while put activity is concentrated at $71,000 to $77,000 strikes on Deribit — reflecting a cautious, range-bound posture heading into the weekend.
Conversely, privacy coins DASH, ZEC and XMR experienced a wave of sell pressure on Friday, eroding much of their early week rally, indicating that sector rotation is in full effect.
Brent crude oil dropped to $102 per barrel on Friday, down from $112 seen earlier this week as speculation swirls around a potential peace deal between Iran and the U.S.
U.S. equities responded well to the drop off in oil; Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high on Friday, while Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are now up by 3% and 1.7% respectively since Tuesday’s low, suggesting a return to risk-on sentiment.
Derivatives positioning
- Crypto futures market-wide volume rose modestly by 1% to $160 billion in the last 24 hours, while notional open interest (OI) remained stable near $128 billion. Liquidations declined sharply by 26% to $200 million. This setup reflects a calmer market with reduced forced liquidations, even as volume growth remains relatively muted.
- Today’s standout token is Near Protocol’s NEAR, which has gained over 25%. With the price rise, OI in futures tied to the token has surged to a record high of 282.53 million tokens. The OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta is positive, a sign of aggressive buying at market orders rather than passive limit orders. This validates the upswing in prices. And last but not least, funding rates remain mildly positive, suggesting healthy leverage conditions and no overheating.
- Markets tied to TRX and LINK display a similar bullish profile, characterized by OI growth, positive CVDs and positive funding rates.
- The bitcoin market offers little excitement, with OI steady in the recent 720K BTC to 750K BTC range. The same can be said for ether.
- Both BTC and ETH’s annualized 30-day implied volatility indices continue to slide. That’s a sign of relentless volatility selling via options, mostly call overwriting.
- On Deribit, bitcoin puts at strikes ranging from $71,000 to $77,000 dominate the 24-hour volume rankings. Similar volume concentration is seen in ether puts. A put option offers protection against price losses in the underlying asset.
