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This bitcoin metric has marked every bear market bottom, and it’s just flashed again
More than half of the bitcoin in circulation is sitting on unrealized losses as the BTC price tests historically significant bear-market support levels.
Jun 4, 2026, 10:20 a.m. 2 min read
What to know:
- The number of bitcoin in circulation priced at a loss has exceeded the supply in profit, with 10.5 million tokens underwater compared with 9.8 million BTC in profit.
- Historically, this crossover has coincided with major bear market bottoms.
- The bitcoin price touched its 200-week moving average at $61,300, a long-term support level that has been reached in every previous bear market.
At the same time, supply in profit has declined to around 9.8 million BTC. This is the first time during the current market cycle that the amount of bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded the amount held in profit.
Historically, this transition has occurred only during deep bear-market conditions, and it has often coincided with major market bottoms.
Previous cycles provide some context.
During the 2015 bear market, supply in loss and supply in profit remained near equilibrium for almost a year before the market recovered. In 2019, the period lasted roughly six months. The Covid-driven capitulation in March 2020 was shorter, lasting around one month, and the 2022 bear market saw this condition persist for about six months.
