In Arca’s view, Saylor has made a series of missteps over the past three weeks. He used his only cash to pay off zero-coupon debt, then rattled markets by teasing a $2.5 million bitcoin sale, which is barely enough to cover one month’s preferred dividends. Strategy currently has roughly five months of cash flow remaining, Dorman noted, leaving the market to wonder what comes next.

The bullish scenario

Dorman says there is one scenario that could stabilize things quickly. If Saylor announces via 8-K filing that Strategy has raised $2 to $4 billion by selling MSTR stock and bitcoin, enough to cover preferred dividends through September 2028, Dorman believes markets would rally sharply. That buffer would remove the forced-seller overhang and give bitcoin room to breathe.

But Dorman doesn’t think Saylor will do it.

“Saylor is basically addicted to buying Bitcoin,” he wrote, suggesting the more likely outcome is continued drip selling, just enough each month to cover the dividend, which keeps steady pressure on the market.

“When the world’s biggest buyer becomes a forced seller, the market will keep pressing until there is blood,” Dorman wrote.

The bright spot

Last week’s BTC selloff was initially confined to Bitcoin itself and did not immediately spill over into the wider market, a bright spot that points to growing market sophistication, according to Dorman.

BTC’s dominance rate, or its share of the total crypto market, fell for the second consecutive week, hitting lows under 58% for the first time since September.

He noted that early in the week, bitcoin fell on its own idiosyncratic news while other crypto assets held steady. This, he said, was a clear sign that investors are now assessing each digital asset on its individual risk profile rather than indiscriminately selling everything when the market leader weakens.

“If BTC can move lower on its own idiosyncratic bad news without taking down the whole market, this would be yet another sign that digital asset market participants are becoming more sophisticated,” he added.

By week’s end though, BTC’s selloff became too intense and most assets joined the downtrend.

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Jiang Zhuoer of BTC.TOP called the week’s sell-off speculation overblown, arguing Strategy’s small debt and the design of its preferred shares let it keep buying.

What to know:

  • Jiang Zhuoer of BTC.TOP argued that even a drop in bitcoin’s price to $30,000 would leave Strategy with relatively low leverage and little need to sell its holdings.
  • He said speculation that Strategy dumped about 45,000 bitcoin from a Fidelity custody wallet is likely overblown, noting the wallet also holds…

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