Forget max pain theory. Bitcoin is well below the $72,000 magnet going into $10 billion options expiry
The popular max pain theory isn’t working out as bitcoin trades far from the $72K level a day ahead of a $10 billion quarterly options settlement.
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Summary
- Bitcoin’s price has fallen from about $67,000 to below $60,000 ahead of a $10 billion options expiry, undermining the popular “max pain” theory that prices gravitate toward a level where options buyers lose the most.
- The current max pain level for Friday’s expiry is around $72,000, far above spot prices, and recent settlements have not shown the expected price “pinning” effect, reinforcing skepticism among options experts.
- Even if max pain dynamics appear weak, the June Deribit expiry is still seen as a major liquidity event likely to spur volatility as billions of dollars in contracts expire or roll into future dates.
