Bitcoin likely to fall another 30% to $44,000 by year-end, prominent BTC miner says
An early miner says Strategy’s stock mNAV has fallen to 0.72, near the level that marked the last cycle’s turn, and that bitcoin historically bottoms about six months after that signal.
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Summary
- Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Chinese bitcoin miner, predicted the current bear market will bottom in the fourth quarter with bitcoin at roughly $42,000 to $44,000.
- His timing is based on Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV), which he says has fallen to near its 2022 cycle low, a landmark it historically reaches about six months ahead of bitcoin’s own price bottom.
- Jiang’s price range is based on a four-year cycle model that sees bitcoin’s volatility shrinking over time.
- His bearish outlook aligns with other recent signals, including bitcoin hovering near its 200-week moving average and the unwinding of the debasement trade.
That reading is close to the 0.7 low Strategy hit on May 11, 2022, during the last bull-to-bear turn, he said, which leads him to think mNAV is near its floor for this cycle.
