Bitcoin opens the third quarter in an historical red zone after rare losing first half
Bitcoin fell in both the first and second quarters of 2026, only the third time it has opened a year that way. In the two earlier instances, 2018 and 2022, the second half brought no rescue.
Make preferred on
Share this article
Summary
- Bitcoin has started 2026 with two consecutive losing quarters, falling about 22% in the first quarter and 14% in the second, a pattern previously seen only in the structurally bearish years of 2018 and 2022.
- While bitcoin’s historical seasonality points to weak third quarters and strong fourth quarters, those patterns broke down in 2018 and 2022, when deeper market stresses turned typically strong year-end rallies into steep declines.
- The current downturn appears driven less by panic than by steady selling tied to record outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, subdued on-chain activity, a strong dollar and investor rotation into AI stocks, with some analysts eyeing $40,000 as the next key support level.
