Ether (ETH) has encountered significant resistance just above the $2,000 mark, signaling a potential downturn if it fails to hold above $1,800. The cryptocurrency’s technical and on-chain indicators are pointing towards a bearish scenario, with a strong support zone established around $1,800, where about 1.23 million ETH were acquired over the last 30 days at an average price of $1,890.
Key Support Level at $1,800
The $1,800 level is critical for ETH’s near-term outlook. If this support is breached, it could trigger a retest of February’s lows, potentially pushing the price lower. According to data from CoinGlass, there have been significant short liquidations totaling over $120 million in the past two days, which has cleared some overhead leverage. However, there remains a substantial $624 million in cumulative long liquidation exposure above $1,800, forming a liquidity pocket just below the current spot price.
Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
From a technical perspective, the $1,800-$1,900 range aligns with the lower trend line of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. If bearish momentum continues, ETH could drop below the lower boundary of the triangle at $1,850, testing support at $1,750. Below that, the measured target of the triangle points to a price of around $1,400, which is 28% below the current price.
MVRV Bands Indicate Further Downside
Ether’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) extreme deviation pricing bands suggest that there is still room for the price to drop before the unrealized profit held by investors reaches an extreme level, around $1,650. Historically, during past bear markets, ETH has bottomed below the lowest MVRV band, as seen in 2018 and 2022. If this pattern holds, the ETH price bottom in the current cycle may be below $1,650, aligning with the symmetrical triangle target.
Conclusion: Preparing for a Bearish Scenario
While the $1,800 level remains a crucial support for Ether, the technical and on-chain indicators suggest a bearish outlook. If ETH fails to hold above this level, it could face a significant downturn, potentially testing levels not seen since early 2023. Investors and traders should remain cautious and monitor the $1,800 level closely, as it will likely play a pivotal role in determining the direction of ETH in the coming weeks.
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