The data proves it: Bitcoin doesn’t care about rising bond yields over long-term
Long-term, BTC ignores rising bond yields. In the short term, however, surging bond volatility could easily dampen crypto’s animal spirits.
- Bitcoin has shown little consistent correlation with government bond yields, suggesting that rising yields alone are not necessarily bearish for the cryptocurrency.
- A 21 percent surge in Treasury market volatility helped push bitcoin from $87,200 to $83,500 on Wednesday, and continued turbulence could trigger further losses.
- Strong U.S. economic data drove yields higher and amplified pressure on heavily indebted countries, while Switzerland’s low federal debt has strengthened the franc’s appeal as a haven.
. Yet over most of BTC’s history, the asset has shown little to no consistent correlation with bonds.
Yields snapped back into focus Wednesday. The U.S. 10-year jumped 15 basis points to its highest level since 2007, topping 5.13%, and pulled yields higher across the globe, as the feature image shows.
The standard interpretation is that as yields climb, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin and gold rises, potentially pulling money toward bonds instead. In short, it’s a headwind, not a tailwind, for crypto.
That logic makes sense on paper. But correlations don’t back it up.
The 90-day correlation between bitcoin’s daily returns and the U.S. 10-year yield’s daily moves is just −0.18, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk. That’s close to zero and almost indistinguishable from no relationship at all.
Longer windows show the same thing, with the 180-day correlation at −0.06 and the 1-year figure at −0.03. Bitcoin is equally uncorrelated to yields of other nations.
