Renowned investor Ray Dalio has sounded the alarm on the disintegration of the post-World War II global order, describing the current state as a ‘law of the jungle’ where power, not rules, dictates outcomes. This grim assessment is fueling a renewed push for assets like Bitcoin (BTC) that operate independently of state control.
A World in Transition
In his latest article on X, Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, outlines a world where great powers are embroiled in a ‘prisoner’s dilemma,’ forcing them to either escalate conflicts or risk appearing weak. These conflicts span trade, technology, capital flows, and increasingly, military confrontations, making what Dalio terms ‘stupid wars’ increasingly likely.
Internal and External Strain
The external disorder is exacerbated by internal stress, Dalio notes. Economic strain and widening wealth gaps are driving governments to impose higher taxes and significantly increase the money supply, a move that devalues existing financial claims. This environment is historically favorable for apolitical assets such as Bitcoin and gold, which are seen as hedges against monetary expansion and political instability.
Liquid Assets in a Turbulent Economy
Data from Econovis shows that the global broad money supply has surged from $26 trillion in 2000 to an estimated $142 trillion in 2025. According to Asymmetry, a former fund manager, every major Bitcoin rally has coincided with expansions in M2, the broad measure of money supply. This trend suggests that the next wave of Bitcoin appreciation is building.
Similarly, gold prices have tracked the U.S. M2 money supply, reinforcing its role as a traditional hedge against inflation. The correlation between monetary expansion and the performance of hard assets is clear, providing a compelling case for investors to diversify into these assets.
The Case for Neutral Money
Dalio’s framework highlights the vulnerabilities of traditional savings and payment systems, which are heavily reliant on political discretion and jurisdictional risk. Asset freezes, capital market bans, and embargoes are now standard tactics, emphasizing the need for an apolitical, borderless form of money. This is where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies come into play.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley succinctly captured the sentiment of the crypto community, asking, ‘Is anyone working on global, permissionless, apolitical monetary assets and financial rails? Could be important.’ Asymmetry echoed this sentiment, arguing that the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by fiscal dominance and a fracturing world order, is one of the ‘most structurally bullish backdrops for hard assets in 80 years.’
Looking Forward
While Dalio’s warnings are not a direct endorsement of Bitcoin, they provide a clear macroeconomic narrative that many in the crypto market are using to argue for the increasing demand for ‘neutral money.’ The investment case for cryptocurrencies remains complex, influenced by factors such as interest rates, regulation, market liquidity, and risk appetite. However, the broader geopolitical and economic landscape is undeniably shifting in favor of assets that can operate outside the traditional financial system.
As the world becomes more fractured and unpredictable, the appeal of Bitcoin as a neutral, borderless asset is likely to grow. For investors and policymakers, the challenge will be to navigate this new world order while ensuring the stability and security of the global financial system.
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