Bitcoin bullish bets hit a 28-month high on Bitfinex, and that’s music to bears’ ears
Historically, spikes in Bitfinex BTC/USD longs have acted as a contrary indicator.
What to know:
- Bullish bitcoin long positions on Bitfinex have climbed to 79,343, the highest level since November 2023.
- Historically, spikes in Bitfinex BTC/USD longs have acted as a contrary indicator, often coinciding with price tops and preceding sell-offs.
- The latest surge in longs, combined with macro factors, point to a growing risk that bitcoin’s bear market could deepen.
Yes, you read the title right. The number of bullish bitcoin wagers, the so-called BTC/USD long positions, on the OG exchange Bitfinex has hit multi-month highs.
But, bulls, hold your cheers, as this metric has become a textbook “contrary indicator” over the years, with upswings characterizing bitcoin’s price downtrends.
Highest since 2023
The number of BTC/USD longs has increased to 79,343, the highest since November 2023, according to data source CoinDesk.
Rising bullish bets usually signal growing upside pressure – a positive read. But historically, the market has done the exact opposite, falling just as Mother Nature turns sunny forecasts into storms.
For instance, the number of BTC/USD longs rose 30% in the final quarter of 2025 as BTC’s spot price tanked 23% to $87,550. Similar patterns have been observed in recent years, as seen below.
BTC’s price bottoms when Bitfinex longs peak – and rallies as they decline. Price tops (like October) hit when longs bottom out, then prices slide as longs climb.
