Derivatives positioning

  • Growth in bitcoin futures open interest (OI) has stalled since hitting a near two-month high of 748.65 BTC on Saturday. Near-zero perpetual funding rates and negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) suggest a bias for bearish, short positions.
  • BTC OI declined notably during the spot price bounce from the Asian-session low of around $65,000. It shows that the rally is largely spot-driven and has yet to win the backing of leveraged traders.
  • On Bittfinex, the number of BTC/USD longs hit the highest since November 2023. Historically, this has been a contrary indicator, coinciding with price selloffs.
  • OI in most major tokens, including XRP, ETH, DOGE and SOL, has held largely flat over 24 hours.
  • AVAX and LTC stand out with double-digit percentage gains in futures OI, a sign of capital inflows. Most inflows, however, seem tied to bearish bets, as indicated by their negative CVDs.
  • Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index is under pressure again, falling to nearly 55% after hitting 58% over the weekend. Overall, the index continues to indicate market calm despite the Iran war-led turmoil in traditional markets. Ether’s volatility index suggests the same.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts continue to cost more than calls across all time frames in a sign of lingering downside worries. Dealer gamma is predominantly negative between $65,000 and $70,000, which means dealers could buy low and sell high, potentially keeping prices range-bound.

Token talk

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