Coinbase advisory board says quantum computing threat is on the horizon, crypto needs a plan
The 50-page paper concludes that while today’s blockchains remain secure, a future “fault-tolerant quantum computer” capable of breaking widely used encryption is increasingly plausible, and preparation must begin now.
Coinbase advisory board says quantum computing threat is on the horizon, crypto needs a plan
The 50-page paper concludes that while today’s blockchains remain secure, a future “fault-tolerant quantum computer” capable of breaking widely used encryption is increasingly plausible, and preparation must begin now.
A Coinbase-backed report warns that while quantum computers aren’t an immediate threat to crypto, the industry must start preparing now for a future where they could break current encryption.
Although post-quantum solutions exist, switching will be complex and costly, pushing major crypto ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana to begin exploring gradual transition strategies.
In recent months, concerns around quantum risk have moved further into the mainstream. Google researchers have published estimates suggesting that a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could one day break Bitcoin’s cryptography.
The report stresses that current quantum machines are far from powerful enough to crack the cryptography underpinning Bitcoin, Ethereum and other networks. Breaking standard encryption would require vast computational overhead, a milestone still considered a major engineering challenge.
Still, the authors caution against complacency.
“We have high confidence that a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer will eventually be built,” the report states, adding that the timeline is uncertain but “clearly on the horizon.”
That uncertainty is exactly the problem, with estimates ranging from “a few years to a decade or more” and no reliable way to predict breakthroughs.
“Waiting for it to be urgent is not a good idea,” the Coinbase paper says, emphasizing that transitions across blockchains, wallets and exchanges could take years to execute safely.
Some assets may be more vulnerable than others. For example, Bitcoin wallets that have already revealed their public keys could be targeted, while those still protected behind hash functions may be safer in the short term.
The good news: Quantum-resistant cryptography (PQC) already exists and is being standardized by NIST.
The bad news: It’s not an easy swap.
Post-quantum digital signatures can be tens to hundreds of times larger than current ones, which could dramatically increase blockchain data costs and reduce throughput. One estimate in the report suggests that replacing today’s signatures with quantum-proof alternatives could expand block sizes by up to 38 times.
There are also usability challenges, from migrating millions of wallets to deciding what to do with “lost” or inactive funds that never upgrade.
Rather than a single solution, the report outlines multiple transition strategies, including hybrid systems that combine existing cryptography with post-quantum updates or allow a gradual switch when needed.
For now, the authors recommend flexible approaches that avoid sacrificing current security or performance while enabling a rapid upgrade later.
“The time to begin preparing for it is now,” the report concludes.
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