As the digital economy continues to evolve, a significant divergence between Bitcoin and tech stocks is sounding the alarm for a potential financial crisis, according to crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes. In his latest blog post, Hayes argues that this divergence is a critical warning sign of an impending credit crisis, driven by the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).
The Bitcoin Fire Alarm
“Bitcoin is the global fiat liquidity fire alarm. It is the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit supply,” Hayes writes. He notes that the recent decoupling of Bitcoin (BTC) from the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index is a red flag that warrants deeper investigation. This divergence, Hayes suggests, could indicate a significant destruction of fiat credit, particularly in the form of dollars and consumer credit.
The AI Job Loss Crisis
The primary trigger for this potential crisis, according to Hayes, is the job losses caused by AI adoption. “AI job losses could trigger another banking crisis,” he warns. In 2025, companies cited AI when announcing 55,000 job cuts, a number that is more than 12 times higher than the layoffs attributed to AI just two years earlier, as reported by CBS News in early February.
Hayes speculates that a 20% reduction in the 72 million ‘knowledge workers’ in the U.S. could result in around $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage losses, representing a 13% write-down of U.S. commercial bank equity. This scenario, he argues, would likely lead to the collapse of weaker regional banks, causing depositors to flee and credit markets to seize.
The Fed’s Response
Hayes predicts that the Federal Reserve would eventually panic and start printing money to stabilize the financial system. “While the Fed is fighting windmills, AI-related job losses will destroy the balance sheets of American banks,” he writes. “Finally, the monetary mandarins panic and press that Brrrr button harder than I shred pow the morning after a one-meter dump.”
The Impact on Bitcoin
This surge in fiat credit creation, Hayes believes, will have a profound impact on Bitcoin. “The future expectation of increased fiat creation to save the banking system will propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high,” he predicts. In addition to Bitcoin, Hayes and his company, Maelstrom, plan to deploy excess stablecoins into Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) once the Fed starts printing money.
Previous Predictions and Theories
This is not the first time Hayes has proposed radical money-printing theories. In January, he suggested that the Federal Reserve would print money to alleviate the Japanese bond crisis. In December 2025, he predicted that Bitcoin would surge to $200,000 by March due to a new Fed liquidity tool called Reserve Management Purchases, which resembles quantitative easing.
Conclusion
The divergence between Bitcoin and tech stocks, coupled with the looming threat of AI-driven job losses, presents a complex and multifaceted challenge for financial institutions and policymakers. As Hayes’s predictions gain traction, the crypto community and financial markets will be watching closely to see how these events unfold and whether the Fed will indeed be forced to resort to unprecedented measures to avert a crisis. In the meantime, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may continue to be seen as a hedge against the potential instability in traditional financial systems.
About the Author
