BofA survey flags dollar bearish bets at over a decade high. Here’s what it means for bitcoin
BofA’s February survey shows investor positioning in the U.S. dollar has fallen to its most negative level since at least early 2012.
Make us preferred on GoogleWhat to know:
- Investors are more bearish on the U.S. dollar than ever, a positioning that has historically been a bullish tailwind for bitcoin because a weaker dollar tends to support risk assets.
- Since early 2025, bitcoin has developed an unusually positive correlation with the dollar, with their 90-day correlation reaching 0.60 even as both the dollar index and BTC have fallen.
- If this new link holds, a further dollar slide could hurt bitcoin, while a sharp dollar short squeeze and rebound could instead lift BTC.
Investors are most bearish on the dollar in over a decade, per Bank of America’s (BofA) latest survey and that extreme bet could breed bitcoin volatility, just not the way crypto bulls have become used to.
BofA’s February survey shows investor positioning in the U.S. dollar has fallen to its most negative (bearish) level since at least early 2012, with net exposure at a record underweight. This is driven by concerns over further deterioration in the U.S. labor market, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Since its inception, bitcoin has mostly moved in the opposite direction of the U.S. Dollar Index, rising when the greenback slides and falling when it strengthens. That tracks for two big reasons: As a dollar-denominated asset, a softer buck makes BTC cheaper to buy and vice versa. Plus, a strong dollar tightens financial conditions globally, hammering risk assets like bitcoin and the reverse holds when it weakens.
