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Hyperliquid takes a swing at Polymarket with macro outcome bets
The decentralized exchange’s new HIP-4 product lets traders bet on offchain events like inflation and interest-rate decisions, using validators rather than UMA-style external dispute resolution.
May 26, 2026, 6:44 a.m. 2 min read
What to know:
- Hyperliquid has expanded its HIP-4 outcome market to let users trade prediction-style contracts on offchain events like U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions alongside crypto derivatives.
- Unlike rival Polymarket, which relies on UMA’s external oracle, Hyperliquid resolves these markets through its own validator set, which ingests news, decides which markets to list and votes on settlement outcomes.
- The fully collateralized Yes/No contracts, which settle at either 1 USDC or zero, position Hyperliquid as a potential multi-asset venue where traders can combine crypto perps with macro and event-driven bets without shifting collateral across platforms.
Outcome markets mark a notable expansion for the decentralized derivatives venue, which built its business around crypto perpetual futures and initially tested the product using price‑outcome contracts settled against its own market data.
Hyperliquid first tested the product on exchange‑native outcomes, such as whether bitcoin would trade above a specific level by a fixed time using Hyperliquid’s own reference prices. The latest rollout expands that model into real‑world macro events, or offchain outcomes, like U.S. inflation and Federal Reserve decisions, directly competing with prediction market platforms like Polymarket.
