Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue, primarily from its USDC partnership with Circle, could surge by two to seven times if USDC adoption in payments accelerates, potentially reaching a significant portion of the company’s total revenue.
Despite reporting a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025, Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue hit approximately $1.35 billion in 2025, up from $911 million in 2024. The fourth quarter alone saw $364 million in stablecoin revenue, driven by high-margin interest income on USDC balances, a stark contrast to the volatile trading fees that once dominated the exchange’s income.
The Rise of Stablecoins
Stablecoins have become a cornerstone of the crypto ecosystem, with total transaction volume hitting a record $33 trillion in 2025. USDC accounted for about $18.3 trillion of this volume, surpassing Tether (USDT) in transaction value, even though Tether still leads in market capitalization.
Political Headwinds
The rapid growth of stablecoins has not gone unnoticed by regulators. The GENIUS Act, signed into law in July 2025, created a federal framework for payment stablecoins but explicitly bars issuers from paying interest or yield to holders. This provision, backed by the banking lobby, aims to prevent stablecoins from siphoning deposits from traditional banks.
Banks and their allies are now pushing for even stricter regulations through the Senate’s CLARITY Act, which could extend the yield ban and prevent exchanges like Coinbase from offering rewards tied to stablecoin balances. Coinbase withdrew its support for the bill in January, citing concerns over provisions that would restrict its ability to offer stablecoin rewards.
Strategic Implications for Coinbase
Brian Armstrong, Coinbase’s CEO, has indicated that if the yield ban is implemented, the company might keep more of the revenue share from Circle, potentially making the stablecoin business more profitable for Coinbase, albeit at the expense of user benefits. This shift could have significant implications for the company’s revenue model and its relationship with its user base.
Looking Ahead
The CLARITY Act, which includes tougher language on third-party stablecoin yield and a split regulatory framework between the CFTC and SEC, is currently making its way through the Senate. Senator Bernie Moreno has expressed optimism that the bill could pass as early as April. With stablecoins already contributing nearly 20% of Coinbase’s revenue and on-chain dollar volumes at record highs, the outcome of these legislative battles could be more critical for the company’s future than the next crypto price cycle.
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