A liquid 24-hour perpetual market could change that. Firms could adjust positions as events unfold, then use weekend prices to estimate where CME futures may reopen. Insiders said that could make perps useful as both a hedge and a source of price discovery.

“The demand has to be there, or the capital won’t be,” one industry insider said, arguing that firms won’t commit balance sheet until customer activity justifies it.

The problem is depth. A contract may trade around the clock, but that does not mean institutions can move large positions without shifting the market. Weekend liquidity remains thin, and collateral systems do not always move as quickly as the markets they support.

There is also a regulatory fight taking shape. One key question is whether some perpetual contracts should be treated as futures or swaps. That distinction affects margin rules, registration duties and who can provide liquidity. Industry insiders said those legal questions may become more important as exchanges push perps into commodities, equities and other traditional markets.

The debate is also becoming a competitive one. CME has challenged the CFTC’s treatment of Kalshi’s bitcoin perpetuals, arguing the contracts should be regulated differently. Similar disputes could emerge if exchanges seek to expand perpetuals into equities and other asset classes.

“A lot of this stuff… is more commercial than people are going to admit to out loud,” another industry insider said, suggesting some opposition reflects incumbent exchanges protecting existing businesses as much as concerns about market structure.

For now, Wall Street’s view is cautious rather than hostile. Trading firms see a product they understand, regulators see a market moving onshore and exchanges see a chance to capture new volume.

But the largest banks are unlikely to lead. They will wait for the rules, liquidity and infrastructure to catch up.

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