The consolidation has now lasted nearly 50 days, far longer than a typical bear flag. Its duration suggests bears are no longer in control, and the market is evenly balanced, with neither side willing to push the price. This is a classic indecision pattern.”

This doesn’t rule out a deeper sell-off, as seen after the December-January consolidation, but it reframes the recent market action as indecisive rather than structurally bearish.

BTCUSD (TradingView)
BTCUSD (TradingView)

Why 2026 is not 2022

The current bitcoin market cycle also differs materially from the 2022 backdrop. Bitcoin surged from $10,000 to $60,000 between October 2020 and early 2021 in a near-vertical move, with little meaningful support built along the way. When the market eventually unwound in 2022, it retraced much of that move, culminating in the FTX-driven capitulation to $15,000 in November 2022.

In contrast, bitcoin spent most of 2024 consolidating between $50,000 and $70,000, effectively building a base within the range it is trading today.
CoinDesk research highlights strong demand in this region, with more than 600,000 BTC accumulated during the current drawdown. This suggests a structurally stronger foundation compared to prior cycles.

More For You

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor standing. (Nikhilesh De/CoinDesk))

Strategy accounted for nearly all recent BTC digital-asset treasury purchases, with other firms’ share dropping from 95% to about 2%, CryptoQuant data show.

What to know:

  • Corporate bitcoin buying has effectively consolidated around a single firm, Strategy, which acquired about 45,000 BTC in the past month while all other treasury companies together bought only about 1,000 BTC.
  • Strategy now holds roughly 76% of all bitcoin owned by treasury companies, creating a concentration risk in a trade…

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