The numbers confirm what Galaxy Digital warned about last summer. In a July report, Galaxy argued that the digital asset treasury company model was fundamentally a liquidity derivative that worked only as long as equities traded at a premium to their underlying bitcoin holdings.

Once those premiums compressed, the flywheel would reverse: lower prices would shrink net asset values, squeeze out the equity premium, and make share issuance dilutive rather than accretive.

That scenario has played out almost exactly as described.

In July and August of 2025, the DATCO summer when these companies were accumulating, BTC was trading north of $110,000. Now, it’s trading under $70,000, according to CoinDesk market data, as it slowly recovers from the crash of October 10.

Companies that bought aggressively near the cycle top, including Metaplanet and Nakamoto Holdings, carried average costs above $107,000 as of December, according to Galaxy’s analysis, putting them deep underwater at current prices.

Strategy has moved to insulate itself, disclosing in December a $1.44 Billion cash reserve with the goal to eventually build this up to a point to cover 24 months of dividend and interest obligations.

That defensive posture has not slowed its buying. But the CryptoQuant data makes clear that no other firm is keeping pace, and most have stopped trying.

The result is a far more concentrated demand profile than the market was promised.

At Bitcoin Asia in Hong Kong last summer, treasury firms pitched themselves as a scalable new class of corporate buyers that could absorb bitcoin supply and outperform passive exposure.

For now, that vision has narrowed to a single balance sheet.

More For You

Some bitcoin indicators are headed the wrong. (Mark Stuckey/Unsplash)

Key indicators such as ETF inflows cloud the bullish $70,000 holdout story

What to know:

  • Bitcoin has held near $70,000 despite geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices and fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, underscoring the market’s resilience.
  • But a deeply negative Coinbase Premium clouds the bullish holdout story.
  • ETF inflows , a proxy for institutional demand, have slowed since last week,.

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