Bitcoin bulls target $125,000 as U.S.-Iran peace talks trigger risk-on mood
Funding rates at 2023 lows signal the market is heavily short against bitcoin, ZeroStack’s Daniel Reis-Faria says, setting up conditions for a forced unwind if prices push higher.
What to know:
- Bitcoin is trading roughly flat near $74,700 after a strong week, as a record-setting global equity rally pauses ahead of next week’s U.S.-Iran cease-fire deadline.
- Deeply negative bitcoin perpetual funding rates show the market is heavily short, raising the risk of a sharp short squeeze that some traders say could push prices toward $125,000 in the coming months.
- On-chain data suggest many active bitcoin holders are currently underwater, pointing to the possibility that any squeeze-driven rally could ultimately be sold into, with the outcome hinging on whether the U.S.-Iran cease-fire is extended.
The MSCI All Country World Index closed at a record high Thursday before slipping 0.1% in Asia. The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98.20 after President Donald Trump said prospects for a permanent Iran ceasefire were “looking very good.”
Trump claimed, without evidence, that Tehran had agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions, turn over nuclear material, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the deal. Iran has not confirmed those concessions.
A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced separately on Thursday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming the truce in a video message. Markets are trading the headlines as if the deal is closer than it is, which is part of why equities have unwound most of the war premium while crude remains near $98 and the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut.
