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A make or break moment: Will $79,200 act as a launchpad or a ceiling for bitcoin?
True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder cost basis form a critical $78.2K to $79.2K range that could define the next major move.
Apr 22, 2026, 8:45 a.m.
What to know:
- The True Market Mean, currently around $78,200, represents the average cost basis of actively traded coins and is acting as immediate resistance.
- The Short-Term Holder cost basis, near $79,200, reflects the average entry price of recent buyers, who remain underwater and could add to sell pressure if the level is not reclaimed.
The True Market Mean filters out lost, dormant, and economically inactive coins, leaving only the cost basis of participants who are actually present in the market, making it a more precise gauge of where real selling pressure resides.
Just above sits the Short-Term Holder realized price (STHRP) at $79,200, according to checkonchain. This cohort, defined as investors holding coins for fewer than 155 days, tends to be more reactive to price swings. With spot prices below their average entry, these participants remain at a slight loss. Bitcoin tested the STHRP in mid-January around $98,000 and got rejected.
