Bitcoin drops from recent highs as traders watch CME gap, DeFi hack fallout
Bitcoin pulled back after Friday’s surge as traders considered a CME futures gap, a DeFi exploit rattled altcoins and macro pressures weighed on sentiment.
What to know:
- Bitcoin and ether fell, though a CME futures gap is fueling expectations of a possible move higher.
- A $292 million exploit tied to rsETH triggered DeFi contagion fears, slashing Aave’s total value locked and pressuring altcoins.
- Rising oil prices and weaker equity futures weighed on risk assets, reinforcing bitcoin’s relative outperformance.
One reason for traders to be bullish is that the bitcoin futures market on the CME, a venue favored by institutions, closed at $77,540 on Friday and opened at $74,600 to create “CME gap” that spans 3.8% to the upside. A similar gap occurred last week and was filled before the end of the day on Monday.
The first steps have been taken: Bitcoin’s gained 1.5% since midnight UTC, suggesting sentiment is warming following a volatile weekend.
The market tumbled over the weekend as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz came to a halt after opening on Friday. The renewed closure led to a jump in the price of crude oil from $78 to $88 per barrel.
This weighed on risk assets, with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures both down by 0.59% since midnight.
Derivatives positioning
- Marketwide, crypto open interest (OI) held steady near $120 billion over the past 24 hours. Trading volume, in contrast, jumped 30%, suggesting a surge in activity without a corresponding increase in new positions. That potentially points to increased turnover, short-term positioning or traders rotating risk rather than deploying fresh capital.
- OI in solana (SOL), bitcoin , ether (ETH) and XRP (XRP) held largely steady. OI in HYPE futures declined by 3% alongside as the price fell, pointing to capital outflows. Elsewhere, OI in AVAX and SP 500 perpetuals rose by 6% to 10%, respectively.
- OI in AAVE futures surged to a record high of 3.46 million tokens as collateral damage from the weekend exploit of KelpDAO led to rapid withdrawals of from the Aave lending platform.
- Funding rates tied to BTC, ETH and several other tokens flipped negative, indicating a bias for short positions that would benefit from a price drop in these tokens.
- BTC and ETH options on Deribit continue to trade pricier than calls in a sign of lingering downside concern.
- Block flows featured bias for BTC call spreads, which are directional bets, and ether straddles, a volatility play.
