Bitcoin has soared 50% on average after midterms. The S&P 500 has gained 15%.
Both bitcoin and the S&P 500 have historically produced positive returns in a year after midterms. BTC’s pattern, however, could also be explained by the four-year halving cycles.
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Summary
- Bitcoin gained an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after the past three U.S. midterm elections, excluding 2010, though its four-year halving cycle may better explain those rallies.
- The S&P 500 has risen an average of 15.17 percent in the year after midterm elections since 1950, more than double its average gain in other years.
- A Democratic takeover of at least one chamber of Congress could intensify disputes over federal debt, defense spending and President Donald Trump’s crypto ties, although markets have largely priced in divided government.
