The $635 million outflow is not a number that bulls can easily dismiss, particularly since the strong inflows through March and April were widely hailed as bullish catalysts, and the macro picture is worsening due to rising inflation in the U.S.

“A persistently hot CPI, an incoming Fed under Warsh that markets read as more hawkish, or another oil shock can compress bitcoin even with positive net flows. From our perspective, the more useful question is not whether the markup leg continues, but whether macro conditions stay loose enough for the flows to do their work,” Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, said. Tesseract has over $500 in assets under management.

Still, it’s worth noting that the relationship between ETF flows and bitcoin is not as straightforward as it once was. A correlation study offers a more data-driven lens on that.

Correlation between daily percent changes in BTC price and cumulative net inflow in ETFs. (SoSoValue, CoinDesk, Claude)

The 90-day rolling Pearson coefficient between bitcoin’s daily percentage return and the daily percentage change in cumulative net ETF inflows currently stands at just 0.16, statistically indistinguishable from zero and down from the peak of 0.68 in February.

In plain terms, knowing the direction in which ETF flows moved on any given day may not offer any cues about BTC’s price action. That said, large redemptions like the one seen on Wednesday still matter.

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