Bitcoin is climbing on thin volume, leaving rally vulnerable to macro shock
Low trading volume and a lack of conviction from big-money bettors could leave the bitcoin rally on shaky ground, said 10x Research head Markus Thielen.
What to know:
- Bitcoin’s push toward $80,000 is being driven largely by spot buying and short covering amid sharply lower trading volumes and deeply negative funding rates, raising doubts about the rally’s strength, 10X Research said.
- Institutional demand remains a support, with bitcoin ETFs logging nine straight days of inflows and April intake reaching $2.5 billion as bitcoin’s market dominance climbs to 60 percent.
- Options and derivatives markets show low volatility and limited leveraged positioning, suggesting a hesitant, low-conviction environment that could turn higher if a macroeconomic catalyst emerges.
In a weekly report, 10x Research head Markus Thielen pointed to a disconnect between price action and underlying market participation. “Bitcoin rallied 4.7% over the past week, yet the accompanying data tells a cautious story beneath the surface,” he wrote.
Trading volumes have dropped sharply. Bitcoin weekly volume came in 17% below average, while ether (ETH) volume fell 20%. At the same time, funding rates — a measure of leveraged positioning — remain deeply negative. “Funding rates fell 6.8% to the 3rd percentile and volumes collapsed 33% to the 4th percentile,” Thielen said, adding that the move higher “was driven by spot buying or short covering rather than leveraged long conviction.”
That distinction matters. Spot buying, often linked to institutional demand, tends to be steadier but less explosive than leveraged trades. It also leaves the market without the kind of momentum typically seen in strong bull runs.
Institutional flows have been a bright spot. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows, helping push total April inflows to $2.5 billion. Bitcoin dominance has also climbed to 60%, signaling capital is concentrating in the largest cryptocurrency rather than spreading across the market.
