The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to form a bottom as the crypto market navigates the final stages of the four-year halving cycle, according to Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck. In an interview with CNBC, van Eck highlighted the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, suggesting that the current downturn is part of a predictable pattern rather than a deviation from the asset’s fundamental value.
The Four-Year Cycle: A Predictive Pattern
“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by its limited supply of 21 million coins and the halving cycle, where the reward for Bitcoin miners is halved every four years,” van Eck explained. “Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a three-year bull run followed by a significant correction in the fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year, which is why we are currently in a Bitcoin bear market. However, I believe we are making a bottom.”
Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors
The four-year cycle theory has been a topic of intense debate among crypto analysts, with some questioning its relevance in the face of increased institutional adoption and market maturity. However, van Eck’s comments come at a time when Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery, with the price up 2.6% over the past 24 hours and 7.6% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko data.
Van Eck also speculated that the recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, could be contributing to Bitcoin’s rebound. “When you think about moving money around in times of economic uncertainty, crypto payment rails are a key tool. This region is very crypto-friendly, especially with the UAE and Dubai playing significant roles in the crypto ecosystem,” he noted.
Looking Forward
Despite the bearish sentiment, van Eck remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. “The fundamentals of Bitcoin haven’t changed. It’s still a scarce asset with a predictable supply, and the halving cycle will continue to drive price movements. As we move through this bear market, I expect Bitcoin to gradually pick up momentum and start a new cycle of growth.”
VanEck’s perspective aligns with the broader market sentiment that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, combined with its growing acceptance and use cases, will continue to support its value in the long run. For investors, this suggests that the current downturn may present a strategic opportunity to position for the next upswing.
About the Author
