What’s stopping BTC from rallying. (Jakub Żerdzicki/Unsplash)
What to know:
Bitcoin’s nearly 10% rally this month is stalling near $75,000 as on-chain data shows investors increasingly taking profits into strength.
Uneven spot demand across exchanges, slightly negative funding rates, and a persistent bias for put options in derivatives markets signal cautious sentiment and a consolidating, not overheated, market.
It is evident from an on-chain indicator called realized profit/loss, which tracks the total dollar value of gains or losses locked in by holders when they move their coins on-chain. The indicator compares the current price at which coins are being moved with the price at which they last moved (the assumed acquisition cost), effectively showing whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss.
Values above 1 indicate increased profit-taking, and the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently well above that threshold. The EMA is used to smooth out day-to-day noise and highlight the broader trend in realized profits.
“Profit-taking activity is rising, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength. A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply,” the firm said in a report.
Profit-taking was particularly strong on Tuesday as Bitcoin briefly climbed toward $76,000 before quickly slipping back below $75,000. According to CryptoQuant, investors realized about $1.14 billion in profits during the move, one of the largest single-day readings this year.
The indicator, though widely tracked, has limitations, mainly that it assumes coins moving on-chain are being sold. In reality, they may simply be moving between wallets or exchanges for custody, rebalancing, or internal transfers.
That said, the latest profit-taking signal aligns with other indicators, such as the cumulative volume delta, suggesting demand is concentrated on specific exchanges while activity remains weaker elsewhere.
The CVD is a measure of who is more aggressive in the market. It shows whether the market is being driven more by buyers demanding liquidity or by sellers hitting bids.
So far, buyers have been aggressive mainly on Binance, but not so much on Coinbase or other exchanges, according to Glassnode.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered exchange Giottus, echoed the view, saying sentiment is improving, but conviction is still not yet fully established.
“Funding rates remain slightly negative, showing that traders are still cautious and not yet leaning aggressively long. On-chain activity has slowed down. This suggests the market is consolidating, not overheating,” he said.
Further, bitcoin options trading on Deribit continues to show a bias for put options across all time frames. It indicates lingering downside fears and demand for protection offered by puts.
Taken together, profit-taking pressure, uneven spot demand, and cautious derivatives positioning all indicate that buyers are absorbing supply but not yet overwhelming it.
Breakout backed by heavy participation and late-session buying, though weak on-chain activity raises questions over durability.
What to know:
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