Bitcoin (BTC) is making a strong comeback, closing in on the $80,000 mark, a level that could bring US spot Bitcoin ETF investors closer to breakeven. This significant milestone, coupled with positive onchain data, suggests that the market may be shifting towards a bullish trend.
Approaching the Breakeven Point
Bitcoin’s sustained price rally above $70,000 has put the spotlight on a key investor cohort: US spot Bitcoin ETF holders. The average entry price for these investors is around $79,900, and the narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s market price and the ETF holders’ cost basis is a crucial indicator of market sentiment. According to data from CryptoQuant, the ETF cost basis level has acted as support in the past, and a break above this level could signal a significant shift in the market.
Positive ETF Flow Data
The flow data adds further context to this shift. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that ETF flows have turned positive after a period of outflows in mid-February. The seven-day average has moved to steady inflows, with daily flows peaking at over 3,300 BTC on March 2. This increase in ETF holdings, now totaling 1,291,618 BTC, up from 1,264,982 BTC a month ago, suggests a renewed interest from investors.
Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Momentum
The technical indicators also align with this bullish sentiment. A decisive move above the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart, a level not seen since October 2025, marks a reclaim of a key long-term trend. Analysts believe that sustained price action above this level often leads to continued upside gains, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
Market Behavior Shifts
The order flow across major exchanges shows a gradual shift in market behavior. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the 30-day volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has turned positive after sustained selling pressure in February. Both retail and institutional flows are now collectively skewing toward accumulation. Bitcoin’s futures data further reinforces this trend, with Binance’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) rebounding by nearly $6 billion from its lows, indicating a rise in aggressive market buying.
Short-Term Holder Activity
Short-term holder activity also aligns with this shift. The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which indicates whether coins are sold at a profit or loss, has moved back above 1. This suggests that the selling pressure has eased, and coins are now trading around or above their cost. Analyst miracleyoon noted, While this capitulation was not as severe as the August 5, 2024, event, the series of recent capitulation signals appears sufficient to have flushed out weak hands.
Looking Ahead
The data suggests that Bitcoin is on track to test the $80,000 level, but a move above the key breakeven zone will be critical in determining the strength and direction of the trend in the coming weeks. If the market can sustain this momentum, it could signal the return of a bull market, providing a strong foundation for further gains and investor confidence.
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