Bitcoin reclaims $69,000 as ceasefire talks surface and crypto shorts get squeezed
A report that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire lifted risk assets across the board on Monday, with short liquidations outpacing longs nearly 3-to-1 in the past 12 hours.
Bitcoin reclaims $69,000 as ceasefire talks surface and crypto shorts get squeezed
A report that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire lifted risk assets across the board on Monday, with short liquidations outpacing longs nearly 3-to-1 in the past 12 hours.
Bitcoin jumped about 3 percent to roughly $69,000, its highest level in more than a week, as traders returned from the Easter break and covered heavily skewed short positions.
The rally, sparked by reports of talks over a potential 45-day Iran ceasefire and easing concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, lifted major tokens and pushed the total crypto market value back above $2.5 trillion.
Despite the sharp bounce and a squeeze of nearly $200 million in short positions, bitcoin remains confined to its recent $65,000 to $73,000 war range, with key resistance levels still overhead and the outlook hinging on whether a ceasefire deal materializes.
The catalyst was an Axios report that the U.S., Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the six-week-old conflict.
Reports that more ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz added to the relief, even as Trump issued increasingly aggressive threats to destroy Iran’s power plants starting Tuesday.
The liquidation data tells the story of how the market was positioned heading into the weekend.
Of the $273.8 million in total 24-hour liquidations across 81,819 traders, shorts accounted for $196.7 million versus $77.1 million in longs, a ratio of nearly 3-to-1 that indicates traders were heavily positioned for further downside after last week’s sentiment collapse. The largest single liquidation was a $10.17 million ETH-USDT short on Binance.
Bitcoin’s 24-hour range stretched from $66,634 to $69,350, a $2,700 swing that caught the worst of the short positioning.
The move came after Santiment data over the weekend showed social media sentiment had hit its most bearish skew since the war began, with five negative posts for every four positive ones. As is often the case in crypto, the most bearish sentiment reading of the cycle produced the sharpest bounce.
The move reclaims the top of bitcoin’s five-week war range but does not break it. The $65,000 to $73,000 channel that has contained every rally and selloff since the conflict began remains intact.
Resistance levels at $71,500 and $81,200, corresponding to the Lower Band and Trader On-chain Realized Price indicators as tracked in a CoinDesk report, sit overhead as the next meaningful tests if the ceasefire momentum holds.
Whether this rally has more substance than the last three depends entirely on whether the 45-day ceasefire materializes or becomes another headline that gets walked back within 48 hours.
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Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone has reiterated his forecast that Bitcoin could plunge to $10,000, this time anchoring his outlook to a clear line in the sand: $75,000.
What to know:
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone reiterates a bearish call that bitcoin could fall back to about $10,000, a level he views as its long-term equilibrium price.
His thesis hinges on bitcoin failing to decisively reclaim and hold $75,000, a key technical and psychological level, with a sustained break above it…
