ETF inflows and stocks favor bitcoin breakout. (Jakub Żerdzicki/Pixabay)
What to know:
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According to analysts at Marex, the level map matters more right now than the narrative.
“80k is the psychological barrier. A clean break and hold above it turns this into a momentum trade with room to extend. A rejection and fade keeps us in the same range logic and invites profit taking back toward the mid 70s,” they said in an email.
“This is exactly where traders watch whether spot demand keeps lifting offers or whether the move is mostly positioning,” they added.
The probability of a clean break above $80,000 remains high, thanks to the risk-on sentiment in global markets and strong market flows.
“The driver stack is straightforward. Equities are firmer on AI and megacap earnings, and crypto is riding that risk-on impulse. At the same time, institutional demand is clearly back in the mix,” Marex analysts said.
“Strong ETF inflows into the end of last week tell you real money is buying the breakout attempt rather than fading it,” they added. Marex Crypto is an institutional-focused division of Marex Group plc, a diversified financial services firm.
The 11 U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pulled in more than $600 million on Friday, extending a run of institutional demand that has totaled $3.29 billion over the past two months, according to data source SoSoValue.
“Spot ETF flows also remain supportive, with roughly $163m in net inflows last week. While there were notable outflows from April 27 to 29, likely tied to month-end rebalancing and some basis trade adjustments, Friday’s approximately $630m inflow more than offset those earlier outflows,” the market insights team at Singapore-based QCP Capital, one of the largest digital asset trading firms in Asia, said.
Even with the supportive backdrop, analysts noted a few key risks that could pose headwinds.
Firstly, the risk-on rally could face renewed pressure if tensions between the U.S. and Iran flare up again. The two sides have been engaged in peace talks for weeks without a breakthrough, while energy markets remain sensitive to any disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route for crude oil.
Amid this, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on countries that purchase Iranian oil.
“Global markets are entering a more fragmented phase with trade tensions intensifying. The United States has warned China of 100% tariffs if it continues purchasing Iranian oil. China has responded with defiance. At the same time, President Trump has raised tariffs on EU vehicles to 25%, adding pressure to transatlantic relations,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said.
For now, though, the setup is straightforward: equities are strong, ETF inflows are rising, and bitcoin is riding both. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
Trump Launches “Project Freedom” to Escort Ships Through Strait of Hormuz (New York Times): U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. military would begin guiding stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament warned the move would be considered a ceasefire violation.
Strategy Pauses Bitcoin Buys Before Tuesday Earnings (CoinDesk): Strategy is skipping its weekly BTC purchase ahead of first-quarter results Tuesday in its second pause this year. Wall Street expects a per-share loss, putting the spotlight on the durability of Saylor’s capital-raising engine.
Morgan Stanley’s Oldenburg: Bitcoin on U.S. bank balance sheets is coming, just not yet (CoinDesk): Morgan Stanley’s new bitcoin ETP pulled in over $100 million in its first six days entirely from self-directed clients, before advisors had even begun offering it. Amy Oldenburg said banks will eventually hold bitcoin on their balance sheets, but Fed guidance and Basel rules mean that’s still a long way off.
Why Almost Everyone Loses on Prediction Markets — Except a Few Sharks (Wall Street Journal): An analysis of 1.6 million Polymarket accounts found that 0.1% of traders take home 67% of all profits, while over 70% of users lose money. Algorithmic firms with massive data budgets dominate, while casual users routinely bleed cash.
Today’s signal
BTC’s weekly chart in candlestick format. (TradingView)
The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format.
Early today, BTC tested the resistance at $80,619. That’s the level where the November sell-off ran out of steam, paving the way for a bounce.
A decisive break above this level would strengthen the case that the recent rebound is part of a broader uptrend, potentially opening doors to $85,000. However, failure to break through could see the rally stall, with the market at risk of another round of selling pressure.
Bitcoin climbed to about $77,400 alongside a broader rebound in risk assets after strong earnings from major U.S. tech companies bolstered sentiment.
Despite the bounce, analysts say crypto remains under short-term pressure from reduced rate-cut expectations, spot bitcoin ETF outflows and heightened geopolitical risk, particularly around oil and the Strait…
