Bitcoin steady as S&P 500 hits record, but options market isn’t buying the peace trade
Crypto’s derivatives desks still want downside protection, QCP says, and long-end yields and gold aren’t confirming the risk-on move.
What to know:
- Bitcoin neared $75,000 alongside record highs in U.S. equities, as investors reacted to reports of an in-principle U.S.-Iran agreement to extend cease-fire talks beyond April 7.
- Derivatives and options markets are signaling caution despite the spot rally, with negative funding rates, softening open interest and elevated demand for downside protection suggesting a bounce rather than a durable trend change.
- Ether is outperforming bitcoin as the ETH/BTC ratio rebounds from multi-year lows and Ethereum’s on-chain activity and stablecoin supply hit records, raising the stakes for how both tokens trade in the next risk-off session.
Ether led major tokens, up 8.1% on the week to $2,360, extending the outperformance against bitcoin that emerged earlier this week. XRP gained 3.6% to $1.41, dogecoin rose 4.8% to $0.098, and solana added 2.2% to $85.
The equity rally is running ahead of what other markets are willing to confirm. Long-end Treasury yields barely moved. Gold held near $4,800. Brent crude ticked up to $95 as the U.S. pressed ahead with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.
“Stocks are basically expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is all but over,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.
Crypto’s derivatives desks aren’t pricing the same conviction. QCP Capital wrote in a Telegram broadcast on Wednesday that bitcoin’s rally is spot-led rather than part of a broader re-risking.
