Bitcoin’s 52-week correlation with USD/JPY hits -0.90, undercutting ‘carry trade’ theory
Bitcoin’s price has shown an unusually strong negative 52-week correlation with the dollar-yen exchange rate.
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Summary
- Bitcoin’s price has shown an unusually strong negative 52-week correlation with the dollar-yen exchange rate, with about 81% of its weekly moves statistically explained by shifts in USD/JPY.
- This pattern means bitcoin and the yen have recently tended to move together against the dollar, challenging the traditional yen carry-trade view that a stronger yen should hurt crypto and other risk assets.
- The apparent bitcoin-yen link may be a byproduct of broader dollar strength driven by shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations, rather than a direct relationship between the two assets.
