Bitcoin’s $76,000 breakout fails but a rare signal is hinting at major market bottom
Derivatives funding rates have now remained negative for 46 days, a streak last seen following the FTX crash which marked the bottom of 2022’s crypto winter.
What to know:
- Bitcoin briefly topped the key $76,000 level before reversing to $74,000, extending a two-month struggle to sustain a true breakout.
- Funding rates on Binance’s bitcoin perpetuals have remained negative for 46 days, even as open interest rises, indicating persistent bearish positioning.
- Such extended risk-off regimes, marked by crowded short trades, have historically preceded sharp upside moves and attractive entry points, K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde said.
Ether (ETH) followed a similar path, pulling back from above $2,400, but still outperformed, advancing 2.5% daily. Traditional markets saw no such reversal, with the Nasdaq closing at its session high, up 2%.
Still, the conditions are ripe for a squeeze higher even as Tuesday’s breakout didn’t hold.
According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, funding rates on Binance’s bitcoin perpetuals have remained negative for 11 consecutive periods despite the recent rally, signaling traders are still leaning bearish even as prices push higher. At the same time, open interest has been rising, suggesting new short positions are being added rather than closed, he said.
That combination has historically set the stage for sharp upside moves, he said.
