Bitcoin’s bear markets are getting milder. Bull markets may be next
Bitcoin’s latest bear market was milder than past crashes as ETFs, institutional investors and a maturing market reshape its cycles.
- Bitcoin fell about 55% in its latest bear cycle, a smaller drawdown than the 70% to 80%-plus declines seen in previous downturns.
- Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen and Risk Dimensions’ Mark Connors say institutional investors and portfolio rebalancing could temper both bitcoin’s crashes and its rallies.
- Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli says bitcoin’s growing size and maturity, rather than ETFs alone, may better explain why its market swings are becoming less extreme.
has long made investors pay for its bull markets with brutal crashes, but that trade-off may finally be changing.
The crypto asset fell roughly 55% from its October 2025 peak during its most recent bear cycle. That would qualify as a historic collapse in most markets, but for bitcoin, it was relatively tame compared to past collapses. In November 2021, for example, after reaching nearly $69,000, bitcoin plunged below $16,000 a year later as rising interest rates, a string of crypto bankruptcies and the collapse of FTX battered the market. The drop topped 75%. Earlier cycles produced drawdowns of 80% or more.
Past rebounds could be just as extreme. Bitcoin rose from less than $4,000 in early 2019 to almost $69,000 in 2021. It then climbed from its 2022 low to more than $100,000 after U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) opened the asset to a much larger pool of investors.
Those volatile boom-and-bust cycles helped define bitcoin, but both sides of the trade are becoming less dramatic — including the upside.
Bitwise director and head of research Ryan Rasmussen sees spot ETFs, which launched in January 2024, as one reason.
