Crypto markets tumble as oil surges and traders pile into bearish bets: Crypto Markets Today
Bitcoin and ether fell sharply alongside global risk assets after escalating tension in Iran drove oil higher, while derivatives data shows traders positioning for further downside.
What to know:
- Crypto fell after renewed geopolitical tensions pushed oil up by 10% and weighed on equities, strengthening the dollar and driving a broader risk-off move.
- Funding rates turned deeply negative and open interest rose, indicating traders are actively shorting BTC and ETH; liquidations hit nearly $400 million.
- Despite the drop, implied volatility remains stable and options markets show sustained demand for downside protection rather than panic selling.
The latest plunge was spurred by U.S. president Donald Trump, who said on Wednesday evening that the war in Iran would continue with extensive strikes on Iran.
“Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong,” he said.
The comments led to an immediate spike in oil prices, with brent crude rising by around 10% to $108 per barrel as U.S. equities diverged.
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures lost 1.5% and 1.1% respectively while the U.S. dollar increased by 0.5% to above 100 points.
Derivatives positioning
- BTC’s price has dropped over 2% since midnight UTC hours alongside a slightly uptick in open interest in major USD- and USDT-denominated futures. Plus, perpetual funding rates have dropped to their most negative since March 12. This combination suggests that traders are bearish and shorting the falling market.
- In ether’s case, funding rates are most negative since October last year, a sign of strong bias for bearish bets. Meanwhile, bearishness in solana (SOL) is surprisingly more measured despite the overnight hack.
- Privacy-focused zcash (ZEC) and have seen a notable decline in open interest (OI) in 24 hours, a sign of capital outflows.
- Nearly $400 million in futures positions have been liquidated due to margin shortfalls. That’s a 17% increase in losses compared to the previous day.
- Despite renewed risk-off tone, bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices remain flat in recent ranges. It points to orderly selling in the spot market rather than panic.
- There is little scope for panic because traders are already positioned for market swoon. They have been consistently chasing bitcoin and ether put options (downside hedges) since the start of the year. As of writing, bitcoin and ether puts remained pricier than calls across all tenors on Deribit.
- Block flows featured demand for ether straddles, a volatility strategy, and put spreads and bitcoin call spreads.
