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Crypto prediction markets are turning into dangerous national security risks, and Congress wants to ban them
Bubblemaps investigators led by Nicolas Vaiman, discovered 80 bets on Polymarket with a 98% win rate that he said is statistically impossible to achieve.
May 21, 2026, 3:38 p.m. 4 min read
What to know:
- Analysts at Bubblemaps say a cluster of 80 highly accurate bets on U.S. military actions against Iran on the Polymarket platform are so precise that “luck alone cannot explain” the results.
- Bubblemaps’ CEO warns that adversaries could mine prediction markets for clues to U.S. war plans, turning them into tools of intelligence and information warfare and potentially endangering lives.
- The revelations come as lawmakers push the DEATH BETS Act to ban war-related contracts and as Polymarket touts new Chainalysis-backed oversight, even as it denies tolerating insider trading and says it uses AI and blockchain forensics to flag suspicious activity.
“The issue here is they can make war plans accordingly,” Vaiman said. “Just to put it bluntly, this could potentially expose the lives of many people.”
Vaiman said U.S. adversaries could easily spot the insider trading patterns and use that information to plan their own military strategies.
Luck alone cannot explain the accuracy
The warnings come as he and his team uncovered 80 bets on Polymarket that were so accurate that “luck alone cannot explain” the numbers.
Driven by geopolitical tensions, bets on military plans and outcomes have skyrocketed, with more than $1 billion alone this year. The ability to wager on global conflict creates an entirely new category of insider trading.
