EU moves to block retail investors from explosive boom of multibillion-dollar prediction markets
The region’s regulators emphasized that a product’s actual function as a derivative matters more than its commercial name or labeling when assessing compliance.
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Summary
- ESMA warns that some prediction-market event contracts may violate the EU’s binary options ban if they function as financial instruments for retail clients.
- Regulators emphasized that a product’s actual function as a derivative matters more than its commercial name or labeling when assessing compliance.
- Firms offering investment services linked to these products need MiFID II authorization, though they may also face national gambling or MiCA oversight.

