Analysts, experts and media reports have highlighted patterns of large, well-timed trades across commodities and prediction markets, in some cases placed minutes before major policy or military announcements.

“Many experts say the Trump administration has engaged in market manipulation,” according to a March episode of CBC’s Front Burner, which pointed to unusually massively profitable trades in oil futures ahead of announcements related to the war with Iran.

Democratic Congressman Stephen Lynch raised similar concerns. He said trading activity tied to major Trump announcements “raised serious concerns about insider trading and market manipulation by government officials in possession of sensitive national security information.”

There is no evidence that Trump or his administration have violated securities laws or purposely manipulated the markets for self gain, but the increasing number of unusually well-timed market moves, combined with the administration’s direct influence over policy, geopolitics and regulation, has fueled a broader debate over whether the line between political decision-making and market impact is becoming increasingly blurred.

Here are five top moments when bitcoin’s price swung either up or down due to a statement or social media post by Trump, from the “Genesis” skepticism of 2019 to the naval blockades of 2026.

The top five BTC price swings

1. July 11, 2019 — The “Not a Fan” Genesis Post. In his first direct broadside against the asset class, Trump posted on Twitter: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money… and based on thin air.” Bitcoin dropped 7.1% within 45 minutes of the thread.

2. March 3, 2025 — The Strategic Reserve Pivot. Following a year of pro-crypto campaigning, Trump confirmed via Truth Social that his “Strategic National Crypto Reserve” would include a multi-asset basket of cryptocurrencies, most notably bitcoin. Bitcoin surged 8.2% in under 24 hours, jumping from $84,000 to over $91,000.

3. October 10, 2025 — The 100% tariffs on China. In yet another Truth Social post, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports to counter Beijing’s rare-earth export controls. Bitcoin plummeted 12.4% in roughly two hours, crashing from its $124,714 all-time high toward $102,000. And in 24 hours, a $19.38 billion liquidation event had taken place, marking the largest single-day wipeout in the asset’s history.

4. March 3, 2026 — The Anti-Bank “Genius Act” Post. Trump took to Truth Social once again to criticize Wall Street banks for “undermining” the Genius Act and delaying the passage of the Clarity Act over stablecoin yield provisions. Bitcoin rose 5.2% in 10 minutes to $71,000. This moment highlighted the administration’s willingness to go to war with the legacy financial system to protect the crypto sector.

5. April 14, 2026 — The Peace Talks. Following the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that Iran had “reached out” for potential peace talks and that a deal was “very possible.” Bitcoin rose 6.2% within 30 minutes from $70,000 to nearly $75,000.

It might happen again

Bitcoin shot to a more than two-month high above $78,000 on Friday after Trump essentially announced the end of the war and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, by the end of the day, there were already questions about exactly what the U.S. and Iran had agreed to.

By Saturday morning, Iran’s military said the Strait was again closed, and there were reports of some ships making U-turns and others being fired upon. Crypto prices were quickly giving back Friday’s gains, with bitcoin sliding back below $76,000.

More For You

U.S. Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington (Jesse Hamilton/CoinDesk)

Russell Thompson warned of a sharp tightening in global liquidity that could weigh on risk assets and bitcoin in the near term, before expected U.S. policy action provides relief.

What to know:

  • Hilbert Group CIO Russell Thompson said he expects global liquidity to tighten by as much as 25%, creating near-term headwinds for bitcoin.
  • He said he sees the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve stepping in with tools including supplementary leverage ratio reform, Treasury General Account drawdown and interest rate cuts.
  • Thompson…

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