Forecasts for $1 million bitcoin price likely look too ambitious, key ratio suggests
The thesis is that high yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries make non-yielding assets like bitcoin less attractive.
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Summary
- Most lofty targets are based on the assumption that money will rotate out of gold and other assets and into bitcoin, but ignore opportunity cost. High yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries make non-yielding assets like bitcoin less attractive.
- Bitcoin’s price relative to the 30-year Treasury yield never made a new high in the 2025 bull run, unlike its dollar price.
- That ratio has now broken down through a multi-year support line, completing a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.
