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Gemini eyes prediction market challenge to Kalshi, Polymarket, secures derivatives license; shares surge
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss’ crypto exchange now holds licenses allowing it to expand into regulated derivatives and prediction markets, the fastest-growing sectors in crypto.
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 p.m. 2 min read
What to know:
- Gemini, the crypto exchange run by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, won CFTC approval for a derivatives clearinghouse license, allowing it to clear and settle its own derivatives and prediction-market trades.
- The license, combined with Gemini’s existing designated contract market authorization, positions the company to offer a full-stack U.S. trading ecosystem spanning sports, crypto, futures, options and event-based contracts.
- The move comes as prediction markets rapidly expand, with volumes surging in 2025 and Wall Street preparing ETFs tied to the sector, while Gemini doubles down on the U.S. after exiting the U.K., European Union and Australia.
Gemini shares climbed about 7% following the announcement.
Prediction markets have become one of crypto’s fastest-growing areas, with trading volume increasing over 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion, and Hyperliquid, a DeFi derivatives platform, is getting ready to compete with incumbents such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Wall Street is also in, as Roundhill Investments is expected to roll out the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to prediction markets on May 5, while two other asset managers are preparing similar products.
The approval builds on the crypto firm’s December 2025 debut of a prediction marketplace via another affiliate, Gemini Titan, which received a designated contract market (DCM) authorization from the CFTC.
