At the same time, a wave of upcoming initial public offerings — such as SpaceX and artificial intelligence firms like OpenAI and Anthropic — and reduced share buybacks could increase equity supply, putting additional pressure on prices.

“If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns [are] negative,” he said. “It’s going to be really hard to make money from here.”

While he stopped short of calling the current environment a full-blown bubble, he noted that the ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP remains near historic extremes, echoing levels seen before major downturns such as the dotcom bubble.

“In 1929 we were, I think at the top, at 65% [stock market capitalization to GDP] and then in ’87 we got to about 85%-90%, in 2000 we got 270%,” he noted.

“And now we’re at 252%, so you can just imagine,” he said. “We’re clearly so leveraged in equities in this country.”

Because of that, a major stock market correction may have broader ramifications on the economy, government budget deficit and the bond market, according to Jones.

“10% of our tax revenues are capital gains. They go to zero,” he said. “So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You see the bond market getting smoked.”

You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect,” he concluded. “It’s troubling.”

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What to know:

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