Despite a recent collapse to $67 on February 6, Solana’s SOL token continues to struggle against a wave of bearish sentiment. With its value more than 72% below its all-time high of $295, the cryptocurrency is under intense scrutiny, and technical indicators suggest the pain might not be over yet.
SOL’s Technical Indicators Point to Further Decline
The bearish technical patterns on Solana’s charts are painting a grim picture. A head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern confirmed on the weekly chart indicates that the price could be heading toward a target of $50. Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus highlighted this trend, noting that the next level of support sits around the $50-$60 range.
The two-day chart shows that SOL broke below the H&S neckline at $120 on January 30. The measured target of this pattern, calculated by adding the head’s height from the breakdown point, is $57, representing a 30% drop from the current level. On the daily chart, the price is retesting support provided by the lower boundary of a bear flag at $80. A daily candlestick close below $80 would confirm the pattern, potentially leading to a further drop to $48 and a total loss of 41%.
MVRV Bands Suggest a Potential Bottom
Despite the bearish technicals, on-chain data offers a glimmer of hope. Solana’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) bands, which represent price zones based on the average cost at which traders last moved their coins, suggest that SOL might be nearing a bottom. Historically, SOL has seen significant rallies after plunging near or below the lowest MVRV band. For instance, in March 2022, SOL rose 87% within three weeks to $140 after testing the lowest MVRV deviation band around $75.
However, the association with the FTX crash in November 2022 saw a significant deviation below this band, with the price dropping another 70% and bottoming around $7 in December. While the current MVRV band suggests a potential bottom, it is an outlier and should be interpreted with caution.
Solana ETFs Attract Institutional Interest
Amid the market turmoil, spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have continued to attract investor interest. US-based spot SOL ETFs recorded inflows in 66 of 74 days since their launch in late October 2025, underscoring persistent institutional demand. On Tuesday, these ETFs added $2.9 million, bringing their cumulative inflows to $877 million and the total net assets under management to over $726 billion, according to SoSoValue data.
Global Solana-based investment products also logged a total of $31 million in net inflows during the week ending February 13. This steady institutional demand, even as the market price weakened, provides a ray of hope for a short-term price recovery.
Looking Forward
While the technical indicators and recent price action suggest further downside for SOL, the on-chain data and institutional interest in Solana ETFs offer a counterpoint. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and short-term price movements can be influenced by a myriad of factors. Investors should remain cautious and conduct thorough research before making any decisions. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether SOL can find a solid footing or if it will continue its downward trajectory.
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